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Commit 1b0fe213 authored by Reinhold Kainhofer's avatar Reinhold Kainhofer Committed by Reinhold Kainhofer
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Austria: Implement MCMC-decomposition (by Jonas Hirz) of Austrian population 1980--2017

parent 3c64a96b
Branches MCMC
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1 merge request!1Austria: Implement MCMC-decomposition (by Jonas Hirz) of Austrian population 1980--2017
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inst/extdata/Austria_Population_MCMC2018.csv 0 → 100644
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"Austria: MCMC-Zerlegung der Bevölkerungssterblichkeit, Daten: Statistik Austria seit 1947, Berechnungen: Dr. Jonas Hirz, Dokumentation: vgl. Dokumentation der Pensionstafel AVÖ 2018-P"
,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,MCMC-Parameter,,Parameter alpha,Parameter beta,"Parameter beta, Lee-Carter",Parameter zeta,Parameter eta,Parameter beta; Vergleich MCMC vs. Lee-Carter,,,,,
,Geschlecht,Mann,Mann,Mann,Mann,Frau,Frau,Frau,Frau,Unisex,Unisex,Unisex,Unisex
,Trend seit ,1970,1980,1990,2000,1970,1980,1990,2000,1970,1980,1990,2000
Parameter,Alter,"Mann, 1970","Mann, 1980","Mann, 1990","Mann, 2000","Frau, 1970","Frau, 1980","Frau, 1990","Frau, 2000","Unisex, 1970","Unisex, 1980","Unisex, 1990","Unisex, 2000"
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eta,61,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005
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inst/extdata/Austria_Population_Observation.csv 0 → 100644
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inst/extdata/MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R 0 → 100644
+ 74
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stopifnot(require(methods), require(utils), require(MortalityTables), require(tidyverse), require(reshape2)) # MortalityTable classes; new; Excel reader
###############################################################################
### Gesamtbevölkerung Österreich: Bevölkerungsprognose bis 2080 (mittleres Szenario)
### Datenquelle: Statistik Austria
###############################################################################
mort.AT.MCMC.load = function() {
data = utils::read.csv(system.file("extdata", "Austria_Population_MCMC2018.csv", package = "MortalityTables"), skip = 5, encoding = "UTF-8", check.names = FALSE);
data.array = data %>% as_tibble %>%
gather(Variable, Value, -Parameter, -Alter) %>%
separate(Variable, into = c("Geschlecht", "Jahr"), sep = ", ") %>%
filter(Jahr == "1980") %>%
mutate(Jahr = NULL) %>%
acast(Alter ~ Geschlecht ~ Parameter, value.var = "Value")
exp(data.array[,,"alpha"])/2
mort.AT.MCMC = array(
data = c(mortalityTable.NA),
dim = c(3),
dimnames = list(Geschlecht = c("m", "w", "u"))
)
MCMC.trend.damping = function(t) { 200 * atan(t / 200) }
# TODO: Eta einbauen
mort.AT.MCMC[["m"]] = mortalityTable.trendProjection(
name = "Österreich MCMC Männer",
ages = as.integer(dimnames(data.array)[[1]]),
baseYear = 2008,
deathProbs = exp(data.array[,"Mann","alpha"])/2,
trend = -data.array[,"Mann","beta"],
dampingFunction = MCMC.trend.damping,
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "m", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
)
mort.AT.MCMC[["w"]] = mortalityTable.trendProjection(
name = "Österreich MCMC Frauen",
ages = as.integer(dimnames(data.array)[[1]]),
baseYear = 2008,
deathProbs = exp(data.array[,"Frau","alpha"])/2,
trend = -data.array[,"Frau","beta"],
dampingFunction = MCMC.trend.damping,
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "w", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
)
mort.AT.MCMC[["u"]] = mortalityTable.trendProjection(
name = "Österreich MCMC Unisex",
ages = as.integer(dimnames(data.array)[[1]]),
baseYear = 2008,
deathProbs = exp(data.array[,"Unisex","alpha"])/2,
trend = -data.array[,"Unisex","beta"],
dampingFunction = MCMC.trend.damping,
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "u", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
)
mort.AT.MCMC
}
mort.AT.MCMC = mort.AT.MCMC.load()
rm(mort.AT.MCMC.load)
###############################################################################
# mortalityTables.load("Austria*")
# plotMortalityTables(mort.AT.MCMC, mort.AT.forecast, mort.AT.census[,"2011"], Period = 2011) + facet_grid(.~sex)
# plotMortalityTrend(mort.AT.MCMC, mort.AT.forecast, mort.AT.census[,"2011"], Period = 2011) + facet_grid(.~sex)
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