From 89cab4d4bab46cee5c4fa896cd552729d77251af Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Reinhold Kainhofer <reinhold@kainhofer.com>
Date: Thu, 22 Aug 2019 23:14:33 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Austria Population MCMC: Extrapolate to age 120 (both base
table and trend)
---
.../MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R | 22 ++++++++++++++-----
1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-)
diff --git a/inst/extdata/MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R b/inst/extdata/MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R
index c2ef45b..2fefe6f 100644
--- a/inst/extdata/MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R
+++ b/inst/extdata/MortalityTables_Austria_PopulationMCMC.R
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-stopifnot(require(methods), require(utils), require(MortalityTables), require(tidyverse), require(reshape2), require(pracma)) # MortalityTable classes; new; Excel reader
+stopifnot(require(methods), require(utils), require(MortalityTables), require(tidyverse), require(reshape2), require(pracma), require(MortalityLaws)) # MortalityTable classes; new; Excel reader
###############################################################################
@@ -38,7 +38,10 @@ mort.AT.MCMC.load = function() {
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "m", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
- )
+ ) %>%
+ mT.fitExtrapolationLaw(law = "HP2", method = "LF2", fit = 80:98, extrapolate = 90:120, fadeIn = 90:99) %>%
+ mT.extrapolateTrendExp(idx = 92, up = TRUE)
+
mort.AT.MCMC[["w"]] = mortalityTable.trendProjection(
name = "Österreich MCMC Frauen",
ages = as.integer(dimnames(data.array)[[1]]),
@@ -49,7 +52,10 @@ mort.AT.MCMC.load = function() {
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "w", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
- )
+ ) %>%
+ mT.fitExtrapolationLaw(law = "HP2", method = "LF2", fit = 80:98, extrapolate = 90:120, fadeIn = 90:99) %>%
+ mT.extrapolateTrendExp(idx = 94, up = TRUE)
+
mort.AT.MCMC[["u"]] = mortalityTable.trendProjection(
name = "Österreich MCMC Unisex",
ages = as.integer(dimnames(data.array)[[1]]),
@@ -60,11 +66,15 @@ mort.AT.MCMC.load = function() {
data = list(
dim = list(sex = "u", collar = "Gesamtbevölkerung", type = "MCMC-Fit 1980-2017", data = "MCMC", year = "1980-2017", Tafel = "MCMC-Zerlegung Bevölkerungssterblichkeit")
)
- )
+ ) %>%
+ mT.fitExtrapolationLaw(law = "HP2", method = "LF2",fit = 80:98, extrapolate = 90:120, fadeIn = 90:99) %>%
+ mT.extrapolateTrendExp(idx = 98, up = TRUE)
+
mort.AT.MCMC
}
+
mort.AT.MCMC = mort.AT.MCMC.load()
@@ -73,5 +83,5 @@ rm(mort.AT.MCMC.load)
###############################################################################
# mortalityTables.load("Austria*")
-# plotMortalityTables(mort.AT.MCMC, mort.AT.forecast, mort.AT.census[,"2011"], Period = 2011) + facet_grid(.~sex)
-# plotMortalityTrend(mort.AT.MCMC, mort.AT.forecast, mort.AT.census[,"2011"], Period = 2011) + facet_grid(.~sex)
+# plotMortalityTables(mort.AT.MCMC, Period = 2008)
+# plotMortalityTrend(mort.AT.MCMC, Period = 2008)
--
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